On a forum I frequent, Christian Pipe Smokers, there is an ongoing discussion of the concept of "overpopulation", spurred by the posting of a graph which shows the rapid growth of the last century as a dramatic spike, which it is.
The thing is, population growth is not a matter of mathematics. Children do not arise from the sacred union of Mathematics and Statistics. They are each the result of the free actions of human beings.
Population growth does not drive itself, but is influenced by many factors, just like immigration does not happen as the result of people accidentally drifting over the border in greater and greater numbers. Each comes here as the result of a specifically chosen and purposeful action, or series of actions.
Tracking statistical trends will always result in absurdity if not checked by common sense. It's a bit like me worrying that, since I'm painting twenty hours a week now, where last year I only managed ten, in a few years I'll be painting 320 hours a week... almost twice the number of hours there are in a week. Or worrying that in another decade my daughter will have to cope with the challenges of being 11 feet tall.
Where are all these starving people supposed to come from? How will the Earth manage to produce such an abundance of organisms it cannot support? This seems illogical, to me. Widespread, catastrophic famine could only be caused by a sudden dramatic decrease in the available food supply.
We are aware that the population of the entire planet could fit into the state of Texas with 1000 square feet for each individual?
Don't forget that a lot of current famine type hardship is caused by governments and other people, not by lack of resources. (I'm not even harping on the biofuel stuff-- I mean blocks on local-ish production of food.)
Posted by: Foxfier | May 16, 2011 at 12:56 PM
And one hypothesizes that the homosexuals would tout childlessness as a benefit of their sexual behavior -- unaware that some have, as have the "childfree."
Posted by: Mary | May 16, 2011 at 07:38 PM
This is not that simple, Tim. The mathematics of population growth (of which I know something) works extremely well for animals that do not have reason. Reason is the modifier that cannot be put into the mathematics in a precise way. The less man becomes reasoning, the more he does obey the equations. Sadly, Western civilization seems, on the whole, to becoming less reasonable. This bring the case, it is actually easier to predict demographic trends, today, then it would have been fifty years ago. Unless people start behaving like human beings, again, they will fall prey to inevitable mathematics. So, both you and your friends have some merit to your arguments.
The Chicken
Posted by: The Masked Chicken | May 19, 2011 at 10:11 AM
The comparisons you used in the fourth paragraph are not correct at all. Theres been a lot more research done in population growth than you seem to assume. Its just not as simple as you seem to think, trust me these guys have done their homework and it is in fact a growing issue. Even if some people exaggerate it sometimes.
Posted by: Johnen | January 19, 2012 at 01:06 PM